Working Class Anti-Hero Polls At 8%

Hutch, in the wake of a Trump victory, is a silver bullet against the establishment.

Some of you will have read and heard about Gerrard Hutch’s flirtation with politics. You may have thought to yourself, it will never happen. It’s too mad. You may have then seen the arrest of Mr. Hutch overseas in Spain in the wake of his declaration of interest and thought to yourself, this is it now. This is the end of the absurdity. No way could that man sustain a campaign, let alone win one with all of the negative media and the danger of gun violence likely still in play. You would think that to be the case but here we are, a few days after his arrest and he is a free man. On appeal, Hutch used the very fact he was running for public office to obtain the necessary bail conditions that would permit him to leave Spain and return home. It seems Gerrard Hutch will be able to run after all.

Now that you know he can do it, now that it is all but certain he will do it, I will ask you to first read my other article on Hutch’s candidacy before we continue. As you will already know, Gerrard Hutch has a vendetta against Sinn Fein. As I explain in that article, his sole reason for running is to take Mary Lou’s seat. There is another element to all of this too, which amplifies his campaign and creates common cause with the disaffected working class. It is not just Gerrard Hutch that Sinn Fein have thrown under the bus, but the entirety of of Irelands working class too. Provisional Sinn Fein have destroyed the last vestiges of nationalist and republican values within the party in an attempt to acquire a middle class vote that will accept woke globalism. In attempting to trade their base and their associates for brownie points with the internationalist elites, Sinn Fein have handed Gerrard Hutch a mandate and a base strong enough to manifest it.

In terms of political ideology, Hutch is homeless. He is seen by half of society as nothing more than a criminal and a scumbag. The other half of society sees him as a Robin Hood style figure who brings with him all of the allure and appeal of the days of Martin Cahill. Hutch is imperfect. Infamously cunning and quick-witted, he mirrors the brashness and populism of Trump. He unquestionably loves the north inner city and has decades of investment in the people there under his belt. He commands the respect of Dublins criminal networks, which you could easily dismiss as nothing to be boasting about however this network could be capable of fundraising and campaigning at levels a traditional party would be envious of. The Trump comparison is a provisional one however, as Hutch’s personal politics are relatively unknown. It is highly unlikely that he supports the woke madness that has destroyed our country and it would be necessary to come out strong against it in order to win over the those who find his criminal past abrasive. He cannot make the mistakes of Sinn Fein with soft, easy target talking points such as “government corruption” or “bond holder” shite talk. His rhetoric would need to be an all out assault on the Irish deep state. He needs to be strong on immigration, gender ideology, free speech and state overreach. His past high court appeal challenging the continued existence of the special criminal court attests to the fact that he is very much so anti-establishment and against state overreach. I, as a far right domestic terrorist, see the SCC as a kangaroo-court in waiting for Kier Starmer style internment so Hutch has had my admiration on that stance for some time. Jury-less courts should not exist in a free country.

So, with all that being said, what are his chances? This is where the stats and figures come into play and let me tell you up front, not only is Hutch electable, but he is already polling in or around the quota for Dublin Central. What does all this mean and where am I seeing all this?

let’s take a look at the 2020 election statistics for Dublin Central.

Dublin Central quota the last time around was 6,288. The total number of people who voted was 31,732, meaning that 20% of the total vote is required for a guaranteed place in the Dail, after that, it is a battle of transfers, count by count until the 4 seats are filled. Last time around on the 9th count, after all transfers had been allocated, only three candidates had reached the quota. Mary Lou McDonald, Paschal Donoghue, and Neasa Hourigan. The remaining seat was filled by Gary Gannon. The first preference votes of Hourigan and Gannon were 3,851( 12.25% ) and 2,912 ( 9.26% ) respectively. Neither of these candidates will hit these numbers again as they have been rejected by their constituents and called out for their demonising and classist rhetoric on issues like immigration and gender ideology. The East Wall protests and the subsequent nationalist wave have eaten into their base as well as Sinn Féin’s. Hourigan is also going to be on the receiving end of the middle ground voter who see her Green Party as as the most hated party in the country. From these numbers we can see that Gerrard Hutch would need to be in the region of 9%, with transfer friendly candidates getting knocked out before he does to stand a chance.

Polling in this constituency is scarce. There is a reluctance for the establishment media to run these polls in case they show peoples actual mood and voting preference. Their narrative is that the establishment is still well got among the general public and to upset this narrative would be suicide. The inconvenient truths that lie within these polls right now would destroy the establishment which is why I was shocked to discover that the Sunday Independent and Ireland Thinks has actually ran a poll. According to their poll, Gerrard Hutch would would get 8% of first preference vote.

“Just eight per cent of people said they would consider giving Hutch a No.1 vote if he was to run as a candidate in their constituency.”

The Sunday World’s language here in saying “just” 8% percent would vote for him is laughable when you consider the numbers I have shown you above. They are clearly downplaying the fact that this man is all but elected if their poll is anything to go by. Consider also the fact that that poll was a national poll and not a poll of Dublin Central, Hutch’s very own Sherwood Forrest. The figure of 8% would be much closer to 12-13% in real terms and that is extremely conservative. If I was Hutch, armed with the information I have just laid out above, I would be extremely optimistic.

There is a caveat that has everyone in our movement talking and it needs to be addressed. Our guy in that constituency is the impressive republican patriarch Malachy Steenson, who also wants Mary-Lou’s scalp at the polls. A Hutch candidacy will split the vote in Dublin Central however the transfers between the two will be immense. The pair of them should look at a transfer strategy for the purposes of the common goal of removing the far left Sinn Fein traitors from the Dail. I also would like to make the following assertion on the matter of vote splitting where these two gentlemen are concerned. They can mathematically both get a seat. The best and most optimistic outcome here would be that McDonald, Gannon and Hourigan haemorrhage so much of their vote that the third and fourth seats become anybody’s to gain. I am an optimist, I know that Hutch and Steenson have what it takes to win a seat. I would prefer to see Steenson in The Dail however, looking at those poll numbers I believe the likely and more realistic prediction here is Hutch winning seat 4 off the back of Steenson’s transfers. This is bad news for nationalists who have a country to save and Hutches Shinner vendetta could get in the way of that.

Malachy Steenson is the candidate I would still cast my number one on, for obvious and more serious reasons. He too, is a very electable candidate and has ran up the kind of numbers at local election level that would indicate general election success. As you can see in the table above, Steenson got 915 (8.9%) first preference votes in the Noth-Inner City LEA. This would likely mean that Steenson is set for in or around 2000-3000 first preference in the generals all going well. The splitting of the vote is not ideal but it is ultimately going to combine the vote of nationalists and Hutch loyalists into one massive transfer, that I am predicting will either elect Steenson or Hutch, depending on how they are fixed. This will be the most intense election in years and this constituency will be an absolute melting pot come November 29th.